Israel Election: Deadlock Forces Three Paths Forward

Israel’s political center of gravity has fractured after Tuesday’s parliamentary vote, leaving no single camp with the power to form a government. The result leaves the identity of the next prime minister in limbo as tallies continue to finalize.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party is projected to win 28 seats, the highest total for any single faction. Despite this lead, his alliance of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties is expected to fall short of the 61-seat majority required to hold the Knesset. The opposition, centered on Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, is tracking for approximately 22 seats. The broader change bloc surrounding Eisenkot is projected at 47 seats, a total that remains well below the threshold for governing.

Arab parties are on track to secure at least 17 seats combined. Both major blocs stated during the campaign that they would exclude these parties from any governing coalition. This dynamic positions the Arab factions as potential kingmakers in any attempt to displace Netanyahu. Formal consultations, in which party leaders recommend a prime ministerial candidate to President Isaac Herzog, are scheduled to begin next week.

Analysts identify three viable scenarios for breaking the deadlock. The first involves a coalition between the change bloc and Arab parties. While most change bloc members pledged to avoid such an alliance, Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas is again offering cooperation. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, noted that while the math works, the public is "deeply unprepared" for a government that includes an Islamist party, particularly following the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks. A variation of this scenario would see a minority government of 65 seats, with Arab parties supporting it from the outside, though Avigdor Lieberman has rejected the model.

The second option is a unity government. Plesner suggested this is a serious possibility, with Netanyahu potentially retaining his ultra-Orthodox and far-right partners while co-opting one change bloc party. Change bloc leaders would likely demand the inclusion of a centrist party in exchange for supporting the arrangement. Plesner indicated the public might accept such a centrist-leaning result, though many voters who supported the opposition to replace Netanyahu may feel the arrangement betrays their mandate.

The third scenario is a repeat election. Eisenkot argued in his election night speech that another vote would be a mistake given the high participation rate. Officials confirmed that 77.7% of eligible voters cast ballots, the highest turnout since 1999. However, Plesner noted that a new election could benefit Netanyahu, who would serve as interim prime minister during the process. This mirrors the 2019 cycle, which saw multiple votes before a coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid took power in March 2021.

Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, stated that entrenched ideological camps now make new elections plausible, a shift from the decade ago when unity was more common. Plesner described the coming weeks as a period for politicians to "get creative," warning that it may "take weeks and perhaps months" to determine who assumes the premiership.