Experts split on picks for Elif Nur Turhan vs. Alycia Baumgardner lightweight title fight

Alycia Baumgardner will move up in weight to challenge IBF lightweight champion Elif Nur Turhan in a 10-round fight with three-minute rounds Sunday at College Park Center in Arlington, Texas. The card airs on ESPN at 8:30 p.m. ET, with prelims on ESPN+ beginning at 5 p.m. ET.

Baumgardner (18-1, 7 KOs), who holds the WBO, IBF and WBA junior lightweight titles, will fight at lightweight for the first time since August 2021. She is 12-0 with one no-contest since losing to Christina Linardatou in July 2018.

Turhan (14-0, 8 KOs) has been a professional for just over four years but is coming off an impressive run. She won the IBF title with a dominant fifth-round TKO of Beatriz Ferreira in December 2025, then added decision wins over Taylah Gentzen and Gabriela Tellez in 2026. Sunday will be her first fight with three-minute rounds, while it will be Baumgardner's third.

The matchup offers a clear clash of styles. The central questions are whether Baumgardner can use her boxing skills and footwork to close the distance and avoid Turhan's power, especially her looping right hand, or whether Turhan can keep the challenger at the end of her punches and land her power shots.

Chantelle Cameron, the WBO, WBA and WBC junior middleweight champion, said she does not expect the move up in weight to trouble Baumgardner, but noted she is doing it against the biggest hitter in the division. Cameron said Baumgardner must box, get in close so Turhan cannot get her power shots off, and rough her up, adding that work rate over three-minute rounds will be a massive factor. "I think it's a toss of the coin, but if I'm going to go for a winner, I am going to go with Alycia by decision," Cameron said.

Soledad Matthysse, a former WBA and WBC featherweight champion who has fought both women, said Baumgardner's footwork is her biggest strength and that she needs to box, move around the ring and use her jab to keep Turhan at a distance. Matthysse said Turhan can look unorthodox and somewhat reckless, sometimes dropping a hand when she attacks and leaving herself exposed. Still, she warned that fighting at 135 pounds could affect Baumgardner's mobility, noting Baumgardner weighed 132¾ pounds for her August 2021 fight against Vanessa Bradford. Matthysse said she would lean toward Turhan on strength but favors Baumgardner on technique, and she declined to pick a winner in what she called a very close fight.

Avril Mathie, a former title contender and current boxing commentator, said Baumgardner must time Turhan and land counters that make the champion respect her power, while using angles and avoiding standing and trading on the inside. For Turhan, Mathie recommended applying pressure, cutting off the ring, investing in body work early, using feints and throwing combinations rather than relying on one big punch. She described Turhan as a fighter who leaves openings yet makes it work anyway, calling her so beautifully unpredictable that Baumgardner could be winning and still see the fight flipped by a few big shots.

Mathie did not make a pick, saying the first few rounds will answer the fight's biggest questions. She gave Baumgardner the edge on points, but said that if Turhan scores a few knockdowns she is likely to win the fight, possibly by knockout.