Miami enters Notre Dame game as a rare touchdown underdog

A historic scenario is set to unfold in college football this Saturday night when the No. 1 ranked Miami Hurricanes visit the No. 4 ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Although Miami holds the top spot in the College Football Playoff rankings and has maintained an undefeated 8-0 record, they are projected to be more than a touchdown underdog in the matchup. This betting discrepancy is largely attributed to the injury to star wide receiver Malachi Toney, a move that has shifted the odds significantly in favor of the host team.

The situation represents a statistical rarity in the sport. If the line holds, it will mark the first time in twelve years that the AP No. 1 team has been considered such a large underdog in a regular-season contest. The previous comparable instance occurred in 2014 when Mississippi State, featuring quarterback Dak Prescott, was a touchdown underdog against then No. 4 Alabama. That game ended with an Alabama victory by a score of 25-20. Another notable example was Clemson entering the 2016 national title game as a 6.5-point underdog to Alabama.

Betting experts suggest that the current line may not be entirely accurate. Johnny Avello, the director of sports operations at DraftKings, noted on Friday that Toney is a critical component of Miami's offense, accounting for half of their production. He indicated that while injuries often cause teams to rally, the betting line may have reacted too strongly to the news. Avello expressed confidence that the spread could dip below seven points before kickoff.

Despite the heavy odds, public sentiment appears split. Avello believes the general public will not view the game as an easy win for Notre Dame. This aligns with data from Caesars Sportsbook, which reported that while 58 percent of bettors selected the Notre Dame moneyline, a larger 73 percent chose Miami with the point spread. Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars, also predicted the line would shorten, describing the current Notre Dame favorite status as slightly high.

It is not unusual for the top-ranked team to be an underdog, as this has happened twice already during the current season. Ohio State was a 2.5-point underdog in a loss to Texas, and Georgia finished as a 2.5-point underdog in a win over Alabama. However, those games involved much smaller spreads. The current Miami situation stands out because of the magnitude of the deficit, potentially making them the biggest top-ranked underdog since Notre Dame was a 10-point underdog to Alabama in the 2013 national championship, a game Alabama won 42-14.

The injury to Toney has also rippled through the Heisman Trophy betting markets. Prior to the injury, Toney was considered a favorite. With expectations that he will miss games until December, he has been removed from most Heisman boards. The focus has shifted to Miami quarterback Darian Mensah, who is now listed as a slight underdog at odds of plus 175. He faces competition from Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith, who is listed at plus 160 according to Caesars.

Feazel emphasized the potential impact of the upcoming game on the award race. He stated that if Mensah can secure a victory in what is arguably the toughest game on Miami's schedule, it will be very difficult to take the Heisman Trophy away from him. The game serves as a major test for the Hurricanes as they look to maintain their perfect season despite the challenging odds and personnel changes.